Grove Insight for the DCCC (10/15-16, likely voters, 10/2-3 in parens):
John Adler (D): 43 (38)
Chris Myers (R): 35 (34)
Undecided: 22 (29)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
The NRCC has spent a decent chunk of coin on this race considering their dire finances ($200K, mostly on mail), but I have to wonder if they’ll actually take this fight to the airwaves. Faced with such a daunting cash disadvantage, I kinda doubt that they’ll go up on the air in this district (which is in one of the most expensive markets in the nation according to SSP’s Bang-for-the-Buck Index), but stupider decisions have been made by Tom Cole this year.
As nervous as we’ve been about this one, when have such a COH gap between the candidates, and as you note, the NRCC is unable to go on the air for Myers, it would be very hard for Adler to lose, even with all of his Trenton baggage.